Jim Chalmers blames likely interest rate rise on Middle East war

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has prepared the way for Tuesday’s expected interest rate rise by pointing to the inflationary pressures from the ongoing Middle East conflict.

财政部长吉姆·查尔默斯通过指出持续的中东冲突带来的通胀压力，为周二预期的加息铺平了道路。

Chalmers said Monday that while he wasn’t going to predict the decision of the independent Reserve Bank, there was a near-universal expectation by economists and markets that rates are going up around the world and potentially in Australia, too.

查尔默斯周一表示，虽然他不会预测独立储备银行的决定，但经济学家和市场几乎普遍预期，利率将在全球范围内上升，澳大利亚也可能不例外。

“We will see much more pressure on inflation from developments in the Middle East in particular,” he said. “Across the major advanced economies, there is an expectation of higher interest rates […] as a consequence of higher inflation coming from principally oil prices but with other considerations and factors, as well.”

“特别是中东局势的发展将对通胀造成更大的压力，”他说。 “在主要发达经济体中，人们预期利率将上升……这是由高通胀导致的，主要源于油价，但也涉及其他考量和因素。”

The interest rate decision will be followed by the latest inflation figures on Wednesday. “What everybody expects there is that headline inflation will come up because of global oil prices flowing through to petrol prices here in Australia,” Chalmers said. “That’s a big driver of the inflation we’re seeing.” Headline inflation is currently 3.5%.

利率决定将在周三最新通胀数据公布后揭晓。查尔默斯说：“大家普遍预期，由于全球油价传导至澳大利亚的汽油价格，总体通胀率将上升。这是我们看到通胀走高的主要驱动力。”目前总体通胀率为3.5%。

If rates do rise on Tuesday, that will be the fourth increase this year. Chalmers said he understood the extra pressure the rate rises are putting on Australians. He added “until we get that inflation number down back towards more normal levels in the target range, then there will continue to be pressure on real wages, wages growth itself.”

如果周二利率确实上调，这将是今年的第四次加息。 查尔默斯表示，他理解加息给澳大利亚人带来的额外压力。他补充道：“在我们将通胀率降至目标范围内的正常水平之前，实际工资和工资增长将继续承受压力。”

The Commonwealth Bank declared in its note to clients: “all steam ahead” for a rate rise. “We now expect the RBA to hike the cash rate by 25 [basis points] to 4.60% at its 28‑29 September meeting,” the bank said. Its previous call had been for a rise in November, but it said there had been a build up of factors suggesting an earlier increase in recent weeks, including “oil prices and the conflict in the Middle East”. All four major banks are predicting a Tuesday rise.

联邦银行在致客户的简报中宣称：加息已「全速推进」。该银行表示：「我们现在预计，储备银行将在9月28-29日的会议上将现金利率上调25个基点至4.60%。」 该行此前的预测是11月加息，但表示近期因素累积表明可能提前加息，包括「油价和中东冲突」。 四大银行均预测周二将加息。

The government on Monday also announced the final budget outcome for the 2025-26 financial year has come in at a deficit of $22.3 billion – $6 billion better than the budget estimate of $28.3 billion. Receipts were up $4.6 billion, while outlays were $1.4 billion under what had been budgeted in May due to under-spending in areas including aged care, the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme and child care.

政府周一还宣布，2025-26财年最终预算赤字为223亿澳元——比5月预算估计的283亿澳元改善了60亿澳元。 收入增加了46亿澳元，而支出比5月预算少14亿澳元，原因是老年护理、药品福利计划和托儿服务等领域支出不足。

Chalmers stressed the revenue improvements were not from commodity prices or wage earners’ taxes, but from higher-than-anticipated investor and superannuation income. The boost in revenue put tax receipts at 24.1% of GDP. Total receipts amounted to 26.1% of GDP.

查尔默斯强调，收入的改善并非来自商品价格或工薪阶层的税收，而是来自高于预期的投资者收入和养老金（superannuation）收益。 收入的增加使税收占GDP的比重达到24.1%。总收入占GDP的26.1%。

The growth in real government spending was 4.3%, down from 5.5% the previous year. But it had risen as a proportion of GDP from 26.2% to 26.9%. Chalmers acknowledged there was more work to be done to contain government spending, while lauding what the government had done so far.

政府实际支出增长率为4.3%，低于去年的5.5%。但作为GDP的比例，已从26.2%上升至26.9%。 查尔默斯承认，在控制政府支出方面还有更多工作要做，同时赞扬了政府迄今为止所取得的成果。

Shadow Treasurer Tim Wilson said, however, that Chalmers could not “kick his spending addiction”, which “keeps fuelling inflation and higher interest rates.”

然而，影子财政部长蒂姆·威尔逊表示，查尔默斯无法「戒除其支出成瘾」，这种成瘾「不断助长通胀和更高的利率。」